This is a summary of the original talk titled Vail Symposium – Envisioning the World of 2023 with Erik Peterson that may be found here
The current state of the world in 2023 and beyond is in a flux, specifically in terms of geopolitical power. Hegemony is back with a vengeance and international organizations and rules are losing their significance. The framework for understanding the world in the next 10 years will be defined by six major geopolitical powers: the US, Russia, Europe, Japan, China, and India. These six powers will compete for influence and power, leading to multi-polarity. The US and Europe are at inflection points, with political and social divisions making it difficult to understand what the countries stand for and how they should position themselves for a turbulent period ahead. This begs some questions – who is thinking in terms of grand strategy and how the parts of the world fit together.
Geopolitical discussion is incomplete without assessing the population and economic outlook for 2023 and beyond. India’s economy is rapidly ascending, while Japan and Russia’s economies are fading rapidly. There is a shift in population growth, with China rising in the short term but dropping significantly due to the residual effects of its one-child policy and India surpassing China as the most populous country in the world by 2023. Europe’s population is on a sharp decline and Japan and Russia’s populations are barely visible. The world is shifting into a multi-polarity state, with a number of geopolitical powers competing for influence and power. The population outlook for 2050 shows a population downshift, affecting the lives of everyone and the global population balance is shifting. The world’s population is increasing rapidly and is projected to reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2058.
In summary, there are various challenges and changes that will shape the world in 2023 and beyond. These include a return of familiar risks such as inflation, trade wars, and nuclear warfare, but also new developments such as debt, low growth, and climate change. An unstable geopolitical multi-polarity, with six major powers, including the US, Russia, China, and India, and the implications of population growth and demographic changes make this all the more challenging. Additionally, economic fragmentation and the uncertain economic outlook, with the potential for “islandization” rather than globalization. There is a dire need for leaders to think about the longer-term and form strategic partnerships in order to navigate these challenges.
Strategic thinking will take center stage in addressing various global issues such as deep divisions in countries and environmental concerns. There is a lack of strategic thinking in current forums and that government officials often point to private sector leaders such as Bill Gates or Elon Musk as examples of strategic thinkers. A group of strategic thinkers such as those aforementioned could begin to pull it together and do what the global leaders are unable to do, cooperate in the face of growing challenges and constant changes.
The views expressed herein may not necessarily reflect the views of JI FAD and/or any of its affiliates
